In toy boy fiance Archibald's fun pool, I finished 2nd out of 62 players against the spread (ATS) even after incorrectly picking underdog san fran +1 over KC in Super Bowl (SB) LIV based on the persuasive case that the SB underdog is the best bet in sports made by Professor Steven Levitt of Freakonomics fame.
https://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/05/magazine/dissecting-the-line.html
So far, SB underdogs are XXVI-XXVI-II.
I finished the regular season 135-116-5 or 53.7%: 89-64-2 road underdogs, 44-48-3 home underdogs and 2-4 with my unsuccesful attempts to identify "value" home overdogs.
A simple all-underdog strategy has now racked up 22 winning regular seasons ATS over the past 28 from 1992 through 2019.
In the 2020 playoffs, I finished 4-6-1 = 0-1 SB, 2-3 road underdogs, 0-1 home underdogs and 2-1-1 picking all home overdogs in the 1/4 final round based on public policy expert and NFL hobbyist Gregg Easterbrook's TMQ advice that home teams have won 74% of all matches in the 1/4 final round.
Monday, September 2, 2019
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