Thursday, April 17, 2014

NBA Playoffs 2014 ATS Recap

My all-overdog approach for this year's playoffs finished 38-48-3.

Perchance my losing 44% record this year against the spread (ATS) reflects the fact that I do not watch basketball even though official Godiva toy boy/fiancé Archibald can't get enough roundball.

Each spring dearest Archibald organizes a friendly, non-profit NBA office pool. The winner is the contestant who picks the most winners ATS over at least 81 regular season matches plus all playoff matches. All matches are weighted equally. I finished 19th comfortably ahead of Archibald whose sports nous is inversely related to his hunk quotient.

To humour Archibald, I participate by relying on economists' studies showing that "heavy" underdogs win more than their fair share of basketball games against the point spread, while "non-heavy" overdogs win slightly more than 50% (although this particular result is not statistically significant).

Over 7 years since 2008 of swimming naked (of roundball knowledge) in Archibald's pool, I am 53.1% ATS.

But, before I get carried away and start billing myself as the NBA playoff Nostradamus, just by picking all overdogs in every NBA playoff game for the past 7 years starting with 2008, you would be sporting a slightly better bettor record of 53.3% ATS.