Tuesday, November 10, 2009

NFL Regular Season Results + Wild Card Picks

If your friendly, non-profit pool extends through the playoffs, take all the home overdogs this week.

I admit to flying blind with playoff picks. The historical data show that favourites won 51% of all playoff games against the point spread from 1992 through last season, well above the 48% winning rate for overdogs in all regular season games since 1992. But, 187 playoff games since 1992 is too small a sample to draw conclusions. Plus, the overdog playoff tendency over the entire period since 1992 is based on 60% dominance from 1992 through the 1999 Super Bowl. Underdogs plus the points have prevailed in 55% of playoff games since then. If anyone out there has NFL playoff stats against the point spread prior to 1992, I would be very interested if you could pass that information along.






Green Bay



NY Jets








2009 Regular Season

7-9 last week pushed me down to 129-123-4 or 51.2% for the entire regular season.

At 8-8 with my ``value overdog`` selections, I did not provide any value-added ending up even-steven with the simplest strategy of picking all underdogs all the time. By picking all the road teams this year, you would have finished 132-120-4 or 52.3%.

But, I will say that I am adding value for those readers who did not know that tilting toward the underdogs is the best approach you can take when playing in a friendly, non-profit NFL pool. Underdogs have taken 52% of NFL regular season contests going back through the 1992 regular season and have prevailed over favourites in 14 of the past 18 seasons. Taking mostly underdogs must be the backbone of any systematic approach to participating in a NFL pool picking winners against the point spread.

28-23-1 or 55% for Lady G's best bets this year. Scroll down to the bottom of the screen for this week's special wild card selections.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

World Series 2009 Recap

In toy boy Archibald's season-long baseball pool with points for each game based on posted odds, I finished with +18.45 points by picking the American League (AL) team in all 252 regular season inter-league contests as well as the all-star game plus 5 World Series games. I will provide detailed analysis of my approach when inter-league games start next year.

Evidence of AL superiority is overwhelming. The AL sports a 57% record against National League (NL) opponents in over 1,000 regular season inter-league contests from 2005 through 2009. The AL has won 8 of the past 12 World Series and 17 of the past 26. Leaving aside the 11-inning tie in 2002, the AL has won the last 12 all-star games to reach a decision and 18 of the last 21.

If Philadelphia played in the AL, they would finish around .500 over a full season. They are no better than the Detroit Tigers (who were lucky to finish above .500) or Toronto (unlucky to finish below .500). Sure, in a short series, Detroit, Toronto or even Philadelphia could defeat the mighty Yankees every now and then. But, not this year, Philly Phanatics. And, not often in future, NL backers, until management of NL teams catches up with the more scientific approach implemented by the more advanced and successful AL franchises.

It's not just a matter of money. The LA Dodgers or NY Mets could generate the same revenues as the Yankees, Red Sox and Angels. Too bad the scarecrow's song in the Wizard of Oz is the motto for most National League franchises: "If I Only Had a Brain".

San Diego took a step forward by appointing as general manager one of the bright sparks from the Boston Red Sox office. I expect to see the Padres challenging the Dodgers in a few years, despite a much smaller budget.