If your friendly, non-profit pool extends through the playoffs, take all the home overdogs this week.
I admit to flying blind with playoff picks. The historical data show that favourites won 51% of all playoff games against the point spread from 1992 through last season, well above the 48% winning rate for overdogs in all regular season games since 1992. But, 187 playoff games since 1992 is too small a sample to draw conclusions. Plus, the overdog playoff tendency over the entire period since 1992 is based on 60% dominance from 1992 through the 1999 Super Bowl. Underdogs plus the points have prevailed in 55% of playoff games since then. If anyone out there has NFL playoff stats against the point spread prior to 1992, I would be very interested if you could pass that information along.
Pick | +/- | Against |
ARIZONA | -1 | Green Bay |
CINCINNATI | -2.5 | NY Jets |
NEW ENGLAND | -3.5 | Baltimore |
DALLAS | -4 | Philly |
2009 Regular Season
7-9 last week pushed me down to 129-123-4 or 51.2% for the entire regular season.
At 8-8 with my ``value overdog`` selections, I did not provide any value-added ending up even-steven with the simplest strategy of picking all underdogs all the time. By picking all the road teams this year, you would have finished 132-120-4 or 52.3%.
But, I will say that I am adding value for those readers who did not know that tilting toward the underdogs is the best approach you can take when playing in a friendly, non-profit NFL pool. Underdogs have taken 52% of NFL regular season contests going back through the 1992 regular season and have prevailed over favourites in 14 of the past 18 seasons. Taking mostly underdogs must be the backbone of any systematic approach to participating in a NFL pool picking winners against the point spread.
28-23-1 or 55% for Lady G's best bets this year. Scroll down to the bottom of the screen for this week's special wild card selections.
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