If your friendly, non-profit pool extends through the playoffs, stick with the home overdogs in the conference championship games even though there is no strong tendency to go on in the historical data.
Favourites have won 65% of 78 conference championships since 1970 – actually a touch below the 2/3 outright winning rate for overdogs in the regular season. I recommend taking the favourites and ignoring the points. My unproved hypothesis is that fewer playoff games turn on points because winning teams go all out to pile up the score in elimination games.
Speaking of piling up the score, Minnesota went beyond the bounds of good taste throwing for a TD on 4th down leading 27-3 late in the game.
Pick | +/- | Against |
NEW ORLEANS | -4 | Minnesota |
INDIANAPOLIS | -7.5 | NY Jets |
Indy covering the points is my choice for best bet this week. Sorry, former Godiva toy boy Reginald and still diehard Jet fan. Not this year for your beloved Jets. Too bad you loved the Jets and football more than you loved me.
Playoff Picks So Far:
3-1 with the home overdogs last week was easy-peasy. Favourites playing with the extra week of rest have won nearly ¾ of 80 divisional round games since 1990. The godds of probability definitely tilt to home overdogs in the divisional round.
Picks | Right | Wrong |
All | 5 | 3 |
Best Bets | 3 | 1 |
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