If your friendly, non-profit pool extends through the playoffs, take all the home overdogs this week.
The match-ups look even on paper with the exception of Arizona @ Carolina. But, the extra week of rest augurs well for home cookin' this weekend. Favourites have won ¾ of 72 divisional round games over the past 18 seasons. Even if we expect 1 of every 5 games to turn on points (and ignore the hypothesis that fewer playoff games turn on points because winning teams go all out to pile up the score in elimination games), the godds of probability tilt to home overdogs.
Wild Card results:
MINN +3 lost
28-20-1 or 58% against the spread for underdogs of 12.5 points or more. The results so far are proving Stanford undergrad whiz kid Gibbs (see 1 November post) correct with his analysis showing that we can expect to see heavy NBA underdogs finish above 50% by a statistically significant margin over a long period of at least one full season. I will continue tracking this trend on behalf of players in non-profit NBA pools.