Just for fun (and it's always about fun, never money, since you can't make money consistently picking winners against the point spread), for NBA pool participants I'm recommending a strategy suggested in a Stanford undergraduate essay.
http://siepr.stanford.edu/siepr_news/JGibbs_NBA_Analysis.pdf
Mr. Gibbs thinks he has discovered evidence that NBA players are consorting with gamblers. I'm not convinced. I think there are other explanations for the distribution of point differentials that he makes such a big deal about. But, whatever the explanation, his data analysis does suggest that if you always take underdogs by 12.5 points or more when playing in a friendly, non-profit office pool picking NBA winners against the point spread, you will end up a statistically significant touch above 50% on your "heavy underdog" picks over the course of an entire season.
So, today I recommend:
LA Clippers +13.5 over UTAH
Oke City +14 over HOUSTON
I will keep track of how "heavy" underdogs do during this coming regular season and we'll see at the end whether the pattern identified by Mr. Gibbs is still holding up.
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