Saturday, November 1, 2008

NBA Pool Advice

Just for fun (and it's always about fun, never money, since you can't make money consistently picking winners against the point spread), for NBA pool participants I'm recommending a strategy suggested in a Stanford undergraduate essay.

Mr. Gibbs thinks he has discovered evidence that NBA players are consorting with gamblers. I'm not convinced. I think there are other explanations for the distribution of point differentials that he makes such a big deal about. But, whatever the explanation, his data analysis does suggest that if you always take underdogs by 12.5 points or more when playing in a friendly, non-profit office pool picking NBA winners against the point spread, you will end up a statistically significant touch above 50% on your "heavy underdog" picks over the course of an entire season.

So, today I recommend:

LA Clippers +13.5 over UTAH
Oke City +14 over HOUSTON

I will keep track of how "heavy" underdogs do during this coming regular season and we'll see at the end whether the pattern identified by Mr. Gibbs is still holding up.

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