Monday, March 12, 2012

NCAA 2012 Men's BB Recap

For those of you playing in non-profit NCAA pools based on picking winners against the spread (ATS), I finished 31-35-1. The best I can spin this year is to take comfort in not being as bad as last year. Over 5 years since 2008, I am even-steven at 160-160-6.

I should admit that just by picking favourites in every NCAA tournament game for the past 5 years, you would have finished ahead of me every year and would be sporting a 170-150-6 or 53% record ATS since 2008.

For what it's worth, I was correct with my advice for the final to give the points taking Kentucky -6 over Kansas.

Lady G vs. President Obama
President Obama picks winners straight-up with no point line for each bracket and round.

He had a tough time in 2010 and 2011 with none of his final 4 picks coming through. This year he correctly picked Kentucky to reach the final, but his championship pick UNC only got as far as the elite 8. The Baracketer did get 6 of his elite 8 picks correct. Not too shabby. When he picks upsets in the early rounds, I can identify games where Lady Godiva and the Baracketer-in-Chief disagree. In Obama's first 4 years in office, I am 13-25 womano-a-mano against the Baracketer. I won 5-3 in 2009, but the President can boast that he defeated Lady G 6-2 in 2010, 10-2 in 2011 and 6-4 in 2012.

And, speaking of mano-a-womano, kudos to the President for also picking the women's NCAA brackets.

Lady G's System

I myself take no interest whatsoever in American college basketball, but toy boy fiancé Archibald can't get enough roundball. Every year he organizes a friendly, non-profit office pool for the NCAA men's tourney. Instead of picking bracket winners, the object of his pool is to pick winners against the point spread each and every day as the tournament unfolds. The winner of his winner-take-all pool is the contestant who picks the most winners against the spread over 64 matches. All matches are weighted equally starting with the play-in game to determine the 64th team.

To humour Archibald, I participate by relying on economists' studies showing that "heavy" underdogs win more than their fair share of college basketball games against the point spread, while "non-heavy" overdogs win slightly more than 50% (although this particular result is not statistically significant).

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