Wednesday, September 3, 2014

NFL 2014-15 Recap ATS

In official Godiva toy boy and fiance Archibald's non-profit pool picking National Football League (NFL) winners against the spread (ATS), I swim naked of all football knowledge other than Professor Leavitt's lessons about gaming market anomalies. I was wrong about the Super Bowl picking SEATTLE over NE. Underdogs are now XXIV-XXIII-II ATS in the first LXIX Super Bowls and still in line with Professor Steven Levitt's prediction that the Super Bowl underdog will be the best bet in sports over a statistically significant M matches. The NFC leads the AFC XXVI-XXIII.

I pride myself on leaving emotions out of my picks, but was pleased to pick against Coach Bill Belicheat.
My Canuck canoodler Arch points out the uncanny similarities between Coach Belicheat and Canadian Prime Minister Darth Harper and former American President Richard Nixon.

I am satisfied to finish 134-130-3 ATS overall for the full year: 4-7 in the playoffs after finishing the regular season at 130-123-3. Overall, I was 85-77-2 road underdogs, 
39-43-1 home underdogs and 10-10 attempting to identify "value" home overdogs. I finished behind the best of the simple plain-vanilla approaches in 2014: all-roadies at 138-126-3. 
The all-underdogs approach remains the long-run champion having defeated all-favorites yet again in 2014 for the 18th underdog triumph over the past 23 years since 1992 averaging 51.7% over that span. 
The elite 8 round was the one week of the year when I pick all overdogs based on public policy expert and NFL hobbyist Gregg Easterbrook (aka TMQ = Tuesday Morning Quaterback), who reports that the 1 and 2 seeds have won 73 out of 100 matches in this round. In the regular season, overdog favourites win about 2/3 of all matches and just under 1/5 of matches turn on points. I doubt that the spreads in this playoff round are large enough to turn around the overdog advantage over the 500 years of data that we would need to test my proposition. Nevertheless, 2 of the 3 straight-up overdog winners this year lost ATS.
I ended up in the middle of all 3 pools that I play in.  
A final Boo-Yah to the memory of the great ESPN sports anchor Stuart Scott. When I was a grad student at Indiana Institute of Technology, my toy boy of the time Reginald insisted that we watch SportsCenter before going to bed and I was always glad he did. During our break-up (caused by Reginald's failure to address his gambling addiction), he would tell me that I was cooler than the other side of the pillow. Reginald, I hope you recognize that you never had it so good and never will again.

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