Monday, June 22, 2015

CFL 2015 ATS Recap

To humour my Canadian toy boy and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald, I participate in his non-profit Canadian Football League (CFL) pool against the spread (ATS). I finished 42-43-1 ATS: 12-19 home overdogs, 8-4 home underdogs, 16-15 road underdogs and 6-5-1 road overdogs.

In the Grey Cup, I was correct picking OTTAWA +6.5 over rEDMONTON. I am 6-1 ATS over the past 7 Grey Cups. 

Edmonton is now 14-11 in Grey Cups -- 2nd only to Toronto at 23-13 (including precursors to present franchises, defunct teams from the distant past and university teams no longer eligible).

I am 53.15% over 7 years picking CFL winners ATS from 2009 through 2015. Not enough matches to be statistically significantly better than 50% dart-throwing, but I am still proud of being above 50% over 7 years. However, before I start calling myself the CFL ATS Nostradamus, I have to admit that I have now finished below 50% in 2 of the last 3 years and overall I am behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 53.5% over the past 7 years. All-underdogs finished 48-37-1 ATS in 2015.

Arch points out that western teams were 70-39 straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2014 and 58-51 ATS including Grey Cups and other playoff matches. This year in 2015, the west was 19-22 straight-up and 16-24-1 ATS. Perhaps the CFL worm has turned away from the past pattern of western dominance. However, the west has won the last 3 Grey Cups and 8 of the past 11. Over four years from 2012 to 2015 the west was 89-61 straight-up, but 74-75-1 ATS. Next year I will not be tilting toward western teams ATS. 

Arch maintained his annual prediction that the 4th place western team would have a better record than the 3rd place eastern team and go on to represent the east in the Grey Cup. As is often the case except for his taste in women, Arch was wrong. At the halfway mark, Arch also predicted that Ottawa would finish last and Hammertown 1st in the east with rEdmonton 1st in the west. Wrong again, Arch, about Ottawa last who finished 1st instead. Hammertown struggled with their QB injured or Arch might have been as right about 1st in the east as he was about the west. At any rate, as a sports prognosticator, Arch is a good toy boy.

If anyone out there has a history of Grey Cup point spreads, it would be interesting to see whether the underdogs are significantly ahead ATS which would be consistent with Professor Leavitt's intuition that the best bet in sports is the underdog in the National Football League (NFL) Super Bowl in the United States.

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