Monday, June 20, 2016

CFL 2016 ATS Recap

To humour my Canadian toy boy and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald, I participate in his non-profit Canadian Football League (CFL) pool against the spread (ATS). 
I finished 42-41-3 ATS: 22-16-1 road underdogs, 4-1-1 road overdogs, 7-14-1 home favourites and 9-10 home underdogs.
In the Grey Cup, I correctly picked OTTAWA +9 over calgary. Arch thought I was barmy to pick Ottawa ATS, but I have correctly picked 8 of the last 9 Grey Cup ATS winners. Underdogs have won 7 of the last 9 Grey Cups ATS.
I am 52.8% over 8 years picking CFL winners ATS starting in 2009 . Not enough matches to be statistically significantly better than 50% dart-throwing, but I am still proud of being above 50% over 8 years. However, before I start calling myself the CFL ATS Nostradamus, I have to admit that I finished below 50% in 2 of the last 4 years. Overall, I am behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 53.7% over 2009-2016. All-underdogs finished 46-37-3 ATS in 2016. Road teams were 50-33-3 ATS.
Arch points out that western teams are 118-74-1 straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2016 and 102-88-3 ATS including Grey Cups and other playoff matches. Despite Calgary's loss this year, the west has won 3 of the last 4 Grey Cups and 8 of the past 12. In 2016, the west was 28-13-2 ATS and 29-13-1 straight-up against the east. 

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