Tuesday, June 20, 2017

CFL ATS Picks 2017 Week 5

To humour my Canadian toy boy and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald, I participate in his non-profit Canadian Football League (CFL) pool against the spread (ATS).
After 4 weeks, I am 8-8 ATS = 4-0 road underdogs, 2-3 home overdogs, 2-3 road overdogs and 0-2 home underdogs. All-visitors leading at 11-5 followed by all-underdogs at 10-6. 
For week 5, I pick all roadies ATS: 
redmonton -3.5 over HAMMERTOWN
montreal +4 over OTTAWA
winterpeg +4.5 over BC
sasquatchewan +9.5 over CALGARY
ottawa +1.5 over TORONTO

I was 52.8% over 8 years picking CFL winners ATS starting in 2009 through 2016. Not enough matches to be statistically significantly better than 50% dart-throwing, but I am still proud of being above 50% over 8 years. However, before I start calling myself the CFL ATS Nostradamus, I have to admit that I am behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 53.7% over 2009-2016. 
Arch points out that western teams were 118-74-1 straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2016 and 102-88-3 ATS including Grey Cups and other playoff matches. The west has won 3 of the last 4 Grey Cups and 8 of the past 12. So far in 2017, the west is 9-2-1 straight-up and 6-6 ATS.

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