Tuesday, June 20, 2017

CFL ATS Grey Cup Pick 2017

To humour my Canadian toy boy and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald, I participate in his non-profit Canadian Football League (CFL) pool against the spread (ATS).
I am 40-44-1 ATS = 14-12 road underdogs, 14-16 home overdogs, 7-8 road overdogs and 5-8-1 home underdogs. Road teams are 45-39-1 and underdogs 43-41-1 this year.
For the Grey Cup final, I pick ATS CALGARY -7.5 over TORONTO. The underdog in a major championship is the best bet in sports as explained by Freakanomics Professor Steven Leavitt. I pick against the underdog in the 2017 Grey Cup to honour and humour Arch and in hopes that western dominance is not fully factored in to the point spread. For what it's worth (nada), I am 7-2 ATS in the past 9 Grey Cups since moving to Canada to be with Arch and to get away from former toy boy Reginald.
I am 52.2% over 9 years picking CFL winners ATS starting in 2009. Not enough matches to be statistically significantly better than 50% dart-throwing, but I am still proud of being above 50% over 9 years. However, before I start calling myself the CFL ATS Nostradamus, I have to admit that I am behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 53.4% over 2009-2017. 
Arch points out that western teams were 148-85-2 straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2017 and 125-107-3 ATS including Grey Cups and other playoff matches. The west has won 3 of the last 4 Grey Cups and 8 of the past 12. So far in 2017, the west is 30-11-1 straight-up and 23-19 ATS. Arch was overconfident in western power and wrongly believed that last-place BC was better than any eastern team and would prove it in the last week of the regular season by keeping Toronto from winning 1st in the east. 
After week 7, dearest Archibald correctly predicted that Saskatchewan would finish 4th in the west and cross over to the eastern playoffs. But, he was wrong with his prediction that Saskatchewan would represent the east in the Grey Cup.

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