Tuesday, June 20, 2017

CFL ATS Picks 2017 Week 14

To humour my Canadian toy boy and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald, I participate in his non-profit Canadian Football League (CFL) pool against the spread (ATS).
After 13 weeks, I am 24-28-1 ATS = 6-10 road underdogs, 8-8 home overdogs, 6-5 road overdogs and 4-5-1 home underdogs. All-overdogs best of the simple, plain, vanilla strategies at 29-23-1.  
For week 14, I pick all 4 homer teams ATS.
I was 52.8% over 8 years picking CFL winners ATS starting in 2009 through 2016. Not enough matches to be statistically significantly better than 50% dart-throwing, but I am still proud of being above 50% over 8 years. However, before I start calling myself the CFL ATS Nostradamus, I have to admit that I am behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 53.7% over 2009-2016. 
Arch points out that western teams were 118-74-1 straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2016 and 102-88-3 ATS including Grey Cups and other playoff matches. The west has won 3 of the last 4 Grey Cups and 8 of the past 12. So far in 2017, the west is 21-4-1 straight-up and 16-10 ATS.
After week 7, dearest Archibald predicted that Saskatchewan will finish 4th in the west, cross over to the eastern playoffs and represent the east in the Grey Cup and that Ottawa and Calgary will finish 1st.

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