Friday, July 24, 2020

MLB Inter-league 2020: NL Wins

The 2020 instalment of the inter-league rivalry was settled by the World Series. National League (NL) teams and American League (AL) teams finished the regular season even-stephen at 149-149 -- the first regular-season tie in 24 years of inter-league play. 
However, if we include the LA Dodger 4 matches to 2 World Series triumph over the TB Rays, the NL takes the annual inter-league contest for the 3rd consecutive year (after 14 consecutive AL triumphs from 2004 through 2017).  
I expected this season to be cancelled because of the COVID-19 virus. From the relative safety of Canada, I can say that the Canadian government was proven correct to have barred the Toronto Blue Jays from playing in Toronto. 

Monday, September 2, 2019

NFL 2019-20 Recap: Pool Picks ATS

In toy boy fiance Archibald's fun pool, I finished 2nd out of 62 players against the spread (ATS) even after incorrectly picking underdog san fran +1 over KC in Super Bowl (SB) LIV based on the persuasive case that the SB underdog is the best bet in sports made by Professor Steven Levitt of Freakonomics fame. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/05/magazine/dissecting-the-line.html

So far, SB underdogs are XXVI-XXVI-II.

I finished the regular season 135-116-5 or 53.7%: 89-64-2 road underdogs, 44-48-3 home underdogs and 2-4 with my unsuccesful attempts to identify "value" home overdogs. 
A simple all-underdog strategy has now racked up 22 winning regular seasons ATS over the past 28 from 1992 through 2019.
In the 2020 playoffs, I finished 4-6-1 = 0-1 SB, 2-3 road underdogs, 0-1 home underdogs and 2-1-1 picking all home overdogs in the 1/4 final round based on public policy expert and NFL hobbyist Gregg Easterbrook's TMQ advice that home teams have won 74% of all matches in the 1/4 final round. 

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

CFL Picks ATS: 2019 Recap

In my Canadian toy boy and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald's non-profit Canadian Football League (CFL) pool against the spread (ATS) for the Grey Cup final, I correctly picked winterpeg +3 over HAMMERTOWN ATS. 
The west has won 5 of the last 7 Grey Cups and 10 of the past 15. Western teams were 24-16 straight-up, but only 19-21 ATS vs. eastern teams in 2019. 
Arch points out that western teams are 200-114-2 straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2019 and 166-146-4 ATS including Grey Cups and other playoff matches. 
I finished 43-41-2 in Arch's 2019 ATS pool: 20-15-2 road underdogs, 10-10 home overdogs, 8-9 home underdogs and 5-7 road overdogs. 
I am 52.3% over 11 years picking CFL winners ATS 2009 to 2019. I have had only 3 losing CFL years ATS out of 11. However, I am trailing behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 53.1% over 2009-2019. 2014 was the only year during this period when CFL underdogs had a losing year ATS.

Thursday, March 28, 2019

Major League Baseball (MLB) Inter-league: 2019 Recap

The surest outcome in sports had been that American League (AL) teams will win the majority of inter-league matches against their National League (NL) opponents. The AL had 14 consecutive triumphs over the National League (NL) from 2004 through 2017. 
But, the NL won 2018 with a 159-147 record including World Series (WS) and All-Star matches. 2018 marked the NL's 1st inter-league triumph since 2003.
We may well look back on the AL's 2017 triumph as the end of AL dominance and at the NL's 2018 victory as the start of a new era of inter-league parity or perhaps even NL dominance?
I was wrong to stick with my faith in the AL and pick all AL squads over all NL teams in all 2019 inter-league matches. 
In 2019, the NL had its best year ever spanking the AL 169-139 or 55% to 45% after including the AL's triumph in the All-Star match and NL's 4-3 World Series victory. We are witnessing a changing of the guard in the inter-league rivalry with the NL now top dog.
Despite this sign of newfound NL superiority, it may still be worth noting that the AL representative has won 21 of the past 36 World Series. However, I was wrong sticking with AL HOUSTON over NL washington in the 2019 World Series. 
AL has won 7 all-star matches in a row, 19 of the last 22 to reach a decision and 25 of the last 31. AL stars still shining brighter.