CFL Picks ATS: 2025 Week 11

I am sticking with all western teams this week. 

I am 23-16 against the spread (ATS) in 2025 after 10 weeks = 2-4 home overdogs, 3-2 road overdogs, 6-6 home underdogs, 12-4 road underdogs. 

Godiva toy boy and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald points out that western teams are now 274-186-4 or 59.5% straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2025 including Grey Cups and other playoff games. 

After 2024, I was starting to accept that the years of western dominance are over. In 2024, east bested west 23-16-2 after winning in 2023 as well. The east has won the past 3 Grey Cups after the west won 6 of the previous 8 and 11 of the previous 15. I am proud, albeit insignificantly statistically proud, to be 10-5 ATS picking the past 15 Grey Cups, although I admit to losing the past 3. 

I am glad that I stuck with a western tilt in 2025. The west is 11-7 straight-up and 12-6 ATS this year. 

I am 51% over 15 years picking Canadian Football League (CFL) winners ATS from 2009 on. (Recall that the  CFL cancelled their 2020 season, so there have been only 15 seasons from 2009 through 2024.) I have had 5 losing CFL years out of 15. I do not do well enough to make a profit betting CFL games with real money, but every now and then my picks should be good enough to win a small, just-for-fun CFL season-long pool. I trail behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 52% from 2009-2024. 2023 was the first year since 2014 for CFL underdogs to record a losing year ATS. 2023 was my worst year ever by far and my 2nd consecutive losing year. 

Arch is too busy with his new hobby to maintain his CFL ATS pool, so my picks this year are just for fun. 

Sorry to say that I have been so caught up helping Godiva toy boy and permanent fiance Arch with his substacking that I still haven't had time to update my CFL picking record for the entire 2024 season. 

AL winning 2025 MLB inter-league rivalry

 In the 2025 chapter of Major League Baseball's (MLB's) inter-league rivalry, American League (AL) teams are besting their National League (NL) rivals 293 wins to 280 (51.1%) even after including the NL winning the All-Star match. 

The AL East leads the way with a 53.4% winning record. The AL West is at 52.8%. Sacramento is the only AL West team with a losing record against the NL. The AL Central's 48% record against the NL holds the AL back.

After 14 consecutive AL triumphs from 2004 through 2017, the NL won the inter-league contest for 5 of 7 seasons starting with 2018 through 2024.

The "brain gap" between AL and NL team managements shrank over the years thanks to the brain drain of smarty-pants and smarty-skirt executives who started with AL squads before crossing over to manage NL teams. 

The AL's remaining claim to superiority is winning 10 of the past 12 All-Star contests, 22 of the last 27 to reach a decision and 28 of 36.

None of this information is useful for betting purposes. Gambling odds are almost never fair for gamblers. For the vast majority, it's not possible to earn a long-term profit gambling.

NFL Picks ATS: 2024-5 Recap

Gratified to correctly pick against the spread (ATS) in Super Bowl LIX:

PHILLY +1 over KC swifties 

Professor Steven Leavitt argued that the Super Bowl (SB) underdog is the single best bet in sports. We won't know if he's right for another CMXLI years.

I finished 8-4-1 ATS in playoffs = 5-1 wild card round + 2-1-1 divisional round + 0-2 conference champs + 1-0 SB = 1-3-1 road underdogs, 3-0 home underdogs and 3-1 home overdogs. 

I kept track of the all-underdogs record for the entire National Football League (NFL) 2024-5 season including playoffs. Underdogs finished 121-147-4 against the spread (ATS) or 45% = 75-90-2 road underdogs and 46-57-2 homie doggies. As a result, I finished dead last in the one ATS season-long pool I swim in.  

Over many decades, NFL home underdogs were the best bet in sports -- but not this year or last. Home underdogs went 9-21 ATS over weeks 5-9. Home underdogs went 47-51-5 in 2023-2024 including playoffs. 

 A simple all-underdogs strategy has recorded 25 winning NFL regular seasons over the past 33 against the spread (ATS), a track record significant to statheads (to borrow one of toy boy Archibald's catch-phrases). 

Underdogs lost the NFL regular season ATS for the 2nd consecutive year. If anyone knows when is the last time that happened, I would be glad to know. And, has there ever been a worse underdog ATS winning % than 45% this year?

Have bettors finally twigged to the fact that they overestimated overdog favorites for years through 2022-23? It's possible. I expect underdogs to win a bit more than 1/3 of all matches straight-up and a bit more than 1/6 of all matches on points. Over the past two years, underdogs have won a bit less than 1/6 of all matches on points and bit less than 1/3  of all matches straight-up. Are the unusual results of the past 2 years just a short-term random walk around the long-term average? Or has the underdog-tilt identified by Steven Leavitt vanished? We will need a few more seasons to reach a conclusion. In the meantime, I will stick with regular-season underdogs in 2025. I will not abandon my all-underdogs regular season strategy just because of two consecutive bad years.

I should say that the all-underdog long-term winning % ATS is not high enough to make a living against the small commissions implicity built into odds offered by gambling houses. 

Sports betting is the House of the Rising Sun of the 3rd millenium: "the ruin of many a poor boy". Dare I say that the 19th century House of the Rising Sun was more fun for customers, but not workers.

CFL Picks 2024

I was wrong picking WINterpeg -10.5 over toronto against the spread (ATS) in Grey Cup CXI. 

The east has now won the past 3 Grey Cups after the west won 6 of the previous 8 and 11 of the previous 15. I am proud, albeit insignificantly statistically proud, to be 10-5 ATS picking the past 15 Grey Cups, although I admit to losing the past 3. 

Sorry, I have been so caught up helping Godiva toy boy and permanent fiance Arch with his substacking that I haven't had time to update my CFL picking record for the entire season.   

After 10 weeks, I was 22-17-1 = 8-2 home underdogs, 10-7-1 road underdogs, 3-3 home overdogs, and 1-5 road overdogs. In the play-offs, I finished 1-4 = 1-1 home overdogs and 0-2 road underdogs and 0-1 Grey Cup.

I am 51% over 15 years picking Canadian Football League (CFL) winners against the spread (ATS) from 2009 on. (Recall that the CFL cancelled their 2020 season, so there have been only 15 seasons from 2009 through 2024.) I have had 5 losing CFL years out of 15. I do not do well enough to make a profit betting CFL games with real money, but every now and then my picks should be good enough to win a small, just-for-fun CFL season-long pool. I trail behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 52% from 2009-2023. 2023 was the first year since 2014 for CFL underdogs to record a losing year ATS. 

Last year 2023 was my worst year ever by far and my 2nd consecutive losing year. 

Godiva toy boy and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald points out that western teams are 263-179-4 or almost 60% straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2024. But, in 2024 east best west 22-16-2 after winning in 2023 as well. 

I am starting to accept that the years of western dominance are over. 

Arch is too busy with his new hobby to maintain his CFL ATS pool, so my picks this year were just for fun.