Friday, April 18, 2008

NBA Playoffs Weekend 1

Lady Godiva fancies:

CLEVELAND -3 over Washington
SAN ANTONIO -4 over Phoenix
NEW ORLEANS -4.5 over Dallas
HOUSTON -1 over Utah
ORLANDO -6.5 over Toronto
LA LAKERS -8.5 over Denver
DETROIT -9.5 over Philadelphia
Atlanta +15 over BOSTON

Just for fun (and it's always about fun, never money, since you can't make money consistently picking winners against the point spread), I'm following a strategy suggested in a Stanford undergraduate essay.

Mr. Gibbs thinks he has discovered evidence that NBA players are consorting with gamblers. I'm not convinced. I think there are other explanations for the distribution of point differentials that he makes such a big deal about. But, whatever the explanation, his data analysis does suggest a strategy that might end up a touch above 50% over several years if the past patterns continue into the future.

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