Sunday, July 13, 2008

Baseball All-Star Game Pick

Lady G fancies the American League (AL) -1.4 over National League (or -140 depending on how the points work in your baseball pool)

I usually avoid the cliché “no-brainer” -- unless I’m describing an ex-boyfriend or explaining my correct decision to part ways with an ex. But, picking the AL in the all-star game certainly qualifies as a no-brainer. Leaving aside the 11-inning tie in 2002, the AL has won the last 10 all-star contests to be decided and 16 of the last 19.

The AL has won 7 of the past 10 World Series and 11 of the past 16.

The AL sports a 57% record in a total of over 1,000 inter-league regular season games over the past 4 years.

There haven’t been enough all-star and World Series games to rule out AL dominance as part of random variability. But, the record from the past 1,000 inter-league regular season games provides clear evidence that the AL has a clear majority of the best players in baseball. And, preliminary evidence from this season indicates that oddsmakers may be underestimating AL dominance. Take the AL if you are playing in a non-profit baseball pool that includes picking the all-star game winner.

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