Monday, May 21, 2012

Major League Baseball 2012 Recap

Updated 30 October

The National League (NL) has now taken 4 of the last 5 World Series contests and 7 of the last 12 as well as 3 consecutive All-Star games. As a result, some fans believe that the NL is a better league than the American League (AL).

Evidence of AL superiority remains overwhelming. AL teams are 142-115 or 55.25% vs. NL teams in 2012 inter-league matches including the All-Star game and the World Series. The AL won inter-league bragging rights for the 9th consecutive year.

The AL has won 13 of the last 16 all-star games to reach a decision and 18 of the last 24.

In the World Series, the AL has taken 17 of the last 29. AL dominance is not simply due the New York Yankees. If we remove the Yankees' 5-2 World Series record during this period, the other AL teams are still 12-10. The AL representative in the World Series is almost always superior to the NL team. If they could play a best-of-1,101 series, we would expect the AL to win 95% of the time. In a best-of-7 affair, random luck allows the NL to win about 40% despite the NL's evident inferiority.

The theme song for most NL team managements must be: "If I only had a brain." One promising sign for the NL is that the NY Mets and Chicago Cubs have imported top AL brains to run their teams. These NL clubs have good long-term futures. Sending the Houston Astros from the NL to the AL will help the NL next year, but will not eliminate the yawning gap between the two leagues. Official Godiva toy boy and fiance Archibald is already predicting that the Astros will lose 120 games next year.

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