Tuesday, December 11, 2007

NFL Week 14 Results

All my picks 7 wins 9 losses
My home overdogs 3-0
My home underdogs 0-2
My road underdogs 2-5
My road overdogs 2-2
Spread a factor 0-1
Lady G’s best bets 1-3
Readers’ choice (SAN FRAN +9 over Minnesota) 0-1

For the season so far:

All my picks 94-104-10 48%
My home overdogs 27-25-2 52%
My home underdogs 17-23-2 43%
My road underdogs 36-42-5 46%
My road overdogs 14-14-1 50%
Spread a factor 15-13-10 54%
Lady G’s best bets 16-35-3 32%
Readers’ choice 2-10-2 21%

Mama told me there would be years like this. 7-9 for Lady Godiva in a week when underdogs went 4-12. Overdogs won 13 of 16 outright with only one game turning on points. At 48%, I’m just a touch ahead of my 2002 record of 47%, my only previous losing year. I haven’t had a winning week since week 7. Since then, I’ve gone -18 or 41%. That’s one long and deep losing streak. Let’s not even discuss Lady G’s best bets.

At least, I’m two wins ahead of a plain-vanilla, all-underdog strategy, the safest approach most years based on historical data. To avoid a losing 2007, I need to pick more than 60% winners over the final 3 – not impossible, but pretty unlikely. I will be sticking to my underdogs-first strategy that worked well 5 out of the past 7 seasons until week 8 of this year.

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