Happy Thanksgiving

NFL Week 13 Picks

My advice this week for players in non-profit NFL pools -- take all the underdogs.

I will be back next week with picks for week 14 and updated results for the season so far.

NBA Underdog Update

8 wins and 3 losses so far for underdogs of 12.5 points or more. According to Stanford undergrad whiz kid Gibbs (see 1 November post), we can expect to see heavy NBA underdogs finish above 50% by a statistically significant margin over a long period of at least one full season. I will keep track this year on behalf of players in non-profit NBA pools.

Thanksgiving Films

The Myth of Fingerprints is my favourite. Official Lady Godiva toy boy Archibald fancies cheesy 1980s "comedy" Love At Stake. Archibald will mail at his expense a bound copy of his Ph.D. thesis to anyone who can tell him who played the part of the turkey in this turkey.

NFL Week 10 Picks

Pick	+/-	Against
Denver	+3	CLEVELAND
DETROIT	+6.5	Jacksonville
CHICAGO	+3	Tennessee
NEW E	-3.5	Buffalo
New O	+1	Atlanta
St. Louis	+8	NY JETS
Seattle	+8.5	MIAMI
G Bay	+2.5	MINNIE
Carolina	-9	OAKLAND
K City	+15	SAN DIEGO
Indy	+3.5	PITTSBURGH
NY Giants	+3	PHILLY
HOUSTON	+1	Baltimore
ARIZONA	-9.5	San Fran

Week 9 results:

Picks	Wins	Losses
All	8	6
Home Faves	1	2
Home Dogs	2	3
Road Dogs	5	1
Best Bets	3
Readers' Choice	NY G -9

Season so far:

Picks	Wins	Losses	Tie	%
All	59	67	4	47%
Home Faves	15	19	1	44%
Home Dogs	17	19	1	47%
Road Dogs	26	28	2	48%
Road Faves	1	1		50%
Best Bets	14	13	2	52%
Readers' Choice	3	5	1	39%

NFL Comments

If I had backed all underdogs (or all overdogs) all year long, I'd be sitting right at 50%, instead of -8. My "value overdog" picks have been dismal this year and last. Nevertheless, I'm sticking to my system and picking 3 more value overdogs this week hoping to turn the tide over the last half of the year.

My sympathies to the Raider Nation. Official Godiva toy boy Archibald's father is losing his marbles, so I know how painful it must be for Raider fans to live through owner Al Davis' King Lear years.

NFL Playoff Team Predictions

With the first half in the books, here are my predictions for who will be in the January playoffs:

AFC
Top 2 seeds	Tennessee Pittsburgh
Other division winners	NY Jets San Diego
Wild cards	New England Baltimore

NFC
Top 2 seeds	NY Giants Arizona
Other divisional winners	Chicago Carolina
Wild cards	Philadelphia Tampa Bay

NBA Underdogs

1 win and 2 losses so far for underdogs of 12.5 points or more.

NBA Pool Advice

Just for fun (and it's always about fun, never money, since you can't make money consistently picking winners against the point spread), for NBA pool participants I'm recommending a strategy suggested in a Stanford undergraduate essay.

http://siepr.stanford.edu/siepr_news/JGibbs_NBA_Analysis.pdf

Mr. Gibbs thinks he has discovered evidence that NBA players are consorting with gamblers. I'm not convinced. I think there are other explanations for the distribution of point differentials that he makes such a big deal about. But, whatever the explanation, his data analysis does suggest that if you always take underdogs by 12.5 points or more when playing in a friendly, non-profit office pool picking NBA winners against the point spread, you will end up a statistically significant touch above 50% on your "heavy underdog" picks over the course of an entire season.

So, today I recommend:

LA Clippers +13.5 over UTAH
Oke City +14 over HOUSTON

I will keep track of how "heavy" underdogs do during this coming regular season and we'll see at the end whether the pattern identified by Mr. Gibbs is still holding up.

NFL Week 9 Picks + World Series Post-Mortem

Pick	+/-	Against
Houston	+4.5	MINNIE
CINCI	+7.5	Jaxville
KC	+8.5	T Bay
Baltimore	+1.5	CLEVE
BUFFALO	-5.5	NY Jets
ST. LOUIS	+3	Arizona
Detroit	+13	CHICAGO
TENN	-5.5	G Bay
Miami	+3	DENVER
OAKLAND	+3	Atlanta
NY G	-9	Dallas
SEATTLE	+6.5	Philly
New E	+5.5	INDY
Pitts	+2	WASH

Week 8 results:

Picks	Wins	Losses	Tie
All	5	8	1
Home Faves		2
Home Dogs	2	1
Road Dogs	3	5	1
Best Bets	1	2
Readers' Choice	Pittsburgh -2.5

Season so far:

Picks	Wins	Losses	Tie	%
All	51	61	4	46%
Home Faves	14	17	1	45%
Home Dogs	15	16	1	48%
Road Dogs	21	27	2	44%
Road Faves	1	1		50%
Best Bets	11	13	2	46%
Readers' Choice	2	5	1	31%

Comments:

5-6-1 against the spread with my base package of underdog picks in week 8 and 0-2 with overdogs. For the past year and a half, I've lost my gift for identifying overdog winners against the spread and have trailed the winning percentage of a plain-vanilla all-underdogs strategy over a period when the all-underdogs approach has failed to record its usual premium performance based on the historical trend. Here's hoping my system comes right for underdogs on the whole and for my 3 "value" overdogs in week 9.

World Series:

The Phillies overcame the National League (NL) talent deficit to take the World Series decisively 4 games to 1. It's good for spectator interest in the World Series for the NL to win every now and then. And indeed, the NL has won 2 of the past 3 World Series and 4 of the past 8.

Nevertheless, the full record of recent inter-league play offers conclusive proof of American League (AL) superiority. The AL has won 7 of the past 11 World Series and 10 of the past 16. Leaving aside the 11-inning tie in 2002, the AL has won the last 11 all-star games to reach a decision and 17 of the last 20. Plus the AL sports a 57% record against National League (NL) opponents in over 1,000 regular season inter-league contests from 2005 through this season.

After factoring in the World Series, an all-AL strategy for the regular season, All-Star game and World Series still generated a net gain of +30.75 pool points over 258 inter-league contests in a non-profit 2008 baseball pool with points for each game based on the posted odds. Philadelphia's victory in a best 4-of-7 series came against odds almost as long and tall as Lady G herself. Until the NL gets back to even over a full season of regular season contests, continue picking the AL in your non-profit baseball pools.