Monday, June 16, 2008

NBA Final Game 6 Pick + Baseball/Soccer

Green Lady G is sticking with Boston -4.5 over LA in game 6.

I’m very nervous. I would dread facing that dastardly Kobe in a game 7.

My results so far against the spread:

All my picks 46 wins 37 losses 2 ties (55%)
My overdog picks 42-32-2
My underdog picks 4-5
Spread a factor: 3-9-2

A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy still leads the way at 48-35-2 (58%) followed closely by all-overdogs at 47-36-2 (56%).

Through Sunday, 15 June, we now have two series of inter-league baseball games in the books. American League (AL) teams have won 57% of all games or 47 or against only 36 victories for National League (NL) teams.

I hear knowledgable Godivans asking: ``What else is new?`` AL teams have dominated inter-league play for the past several years.

What is interesting is how well you would be doing with a strategy of backing all AL teams in a non-profit office pool with points based on odds posted for fools who bet on baseball. You would be +6.3 after 83 games. If the fools who bet on baseball were correctly valuing AL dominance, we should see our net point balance gravitate to 0 over the course of an entire season. If we can maintain a positive point balance, we will have circumstantial evidence that fools who bet on baseball are not correctly valuing AL dominance.

Groups A and B are over in Euro Cup 2008 soccer football. Toy boy Archibald correctly picked three of the four qualifiers for the ¼ finals – Portugal, Turkey and Germany. He underestimated Croatia and overrated Poland. Archibald’s not perfect (far from it), but so far, so pretty good (in both his Euro Cup 2008 pool and as Lady Godiva’s consort).

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