Tuesday, November 27, 2007

NFL Week 12 Results

All my picks 8 wins 8 losses
My home overdogs 2-1
My home underdogs 1-3
My road underdogs 4-4
My road overdogs 1-0
Spread a factor 2-0
Lady G’s best bets 0-3
Readers’ choice (CAROLINA +3 over New Orleans) 0-1

For the season so far:

All my picks 81-85-10 49%
My home overdogs 21-22-2 49%
My home underdogs 16-19-2 46%
My road underdogs 32-33-5 49%
My road overdogs 12-11-1 52%
Spread a factor 15-10-10 57%
Lady G’s best bets 14-29-3 34%
Readers’ choice 2-8-2 25%

I’m satisfied to have finished 8-8 thanks to a 3-1 record with my overdog picks. Another losing week for underdogs with overdogs winning 14 of 16 games outright and only 2 games turning on points. After 12 weeks, an all-overdog strategy is +4 or 51%. Underdogs dominate in the historical data, but overdogs did overcome the point spread 55% of the time over the 2005 season and at a 52% rate in 2003. I’m going to stick with my when-in-doubt-take-the-underdog approach for the remaining 5 weeks of 2007 and then examine the data during the off-season. One hypothesis is that the information about underdogs’ historical dominance has become better known to professional gamblers and point spreads have narrowed as a result.

It’s a good thing I limit my stake to playing a friendly $100 per season office pool. I remain convinced that ex-boyfriend Reginald is mistaken in his blind faith that it’s possible to make a living picking NFL winners against the spread. Sure, he claims a 59% winning record after week 11 this year, but I remember all too well his losing seasons when we were together. If he were really making a profit now, he surely would have repaid the $500 he still owes me to cover his losses after the 2003 Super Bowl thereby forestalling a unpleasant house call by his unfriendly creditors.

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